The role of school-based health centers in providing long-active reversible contraceptive care to adolescents in New York City.

Long-acting reversible contraceptives (LARCs) are effective contraceptive methods for adolescents. This study describes the initiation and continuation of LARC care to adolescents at school-based health centers (SBHCs) during the COVID-19 pandemic. Participants received contraceptive care in New York City SBHCs from April 2021-June 2022. LARC initiation, LARC discontinuation, and total contraceptive visits were measured monthly. During the study period, the SBHCs provided 1,303 contraceptive visits, including 77 LARC initiations. Among LARC initiations, six-month continuation probability was 79.3 % (95 %CI: 69.0-91.1). SBHCs play an important role in providing adolescents contraceptive services, particularly LARC care, when other health care systems are disrupted.

Neutrophil Extracellular Traps Regulate Surgical Brain Injury by Activating the cGAS-STING Pathway.

Surgical brain injury (SBI), induced by neurosurgical procedures or instruments, has not attracted adequate attention. The pathophysiological process of SBI remains sparse compared to that of other central nervous system diseases thus far. Therefore, novel and effective therapies for SBI are urgently needed. In this study, we found that neutrophil extracellular traps (NETs) were present in the circulation and brain tissues of rats after SBI, which promoted neuroinflammation, cerebral edema, neuronal cell death, and aggravated neurological dysfunction. Inhibition of NETs formation by peptidylarginine deiminase (PAD) inhibitor or disruption of NETs with deoxyribonuclease I (DNase I) attenuated SBI-induced damages and improved the recovery of neurological function. We show that SBI triggered the activation of cyclic guanosine monophosphate-adenosine monophosphate synthase stimulator of interferon genes (cGAS-STING), and that inhibition of the cGAS-STING pathway could be beneficial. It is worth noting that DNase I markedly suppressed the activation of cGAS-STING, which was reversed by the cGAS product cyclic guanosine monophosphate-adenosine monophosphate (cGMP-AMP, cGAMP). Furthermore, the neuroprotective effect of DNase I in SBI was also abolished by cGAMP. NETs may participate in the pathophysiological regulation of SBI by acting through the cGAS-STING pathway. We also found that high-dose vitamin C administration could effectively inhibit the formation of NETs post-SBI. Thus, targeting NETs may provide a novel therapeutic strategy for SBI treatment, and high-dose vitamin C intervention may be a promising translational therapy with an excellent safety profile and low cost.

Longitudinal imaging of vitreal hyperreflective foci in mice with acute optic nerve damage using visible-light optical coherence tomography.

Hyperreflective foci (HRFs) appear in optical coherence tomography (OCT) images of the retina and vitreous of patients with various ocular diseases. HRFs are hypothesized to be immune cells that appear in response to ischemia or tissue damage. To accurately identify HRFs and establish their clinical significance, it is necessary to replicate the detection of similar patterns in vivo in a small animal model. We combined visible-light OCT with temporal speckle averaging (TSA) to visualize and track vitreal HRFs (VHRFs) densities for three days after an optic nerve crush (ONC) injury. Resulting vis-OCT images revealed that VHRF density significantly increased approximately 10-fold at 12 h after ONC and returned to baseline three days after ONC. Additional immunohistochemistry results confirmed these VHRFs as inflammatory cells induced from optic nerve damage.

A short-term price prediction-based trading strategy.

Quantitative investment theory has emerged as a prominent and widely researched domain within the financial markets, where investors predominantly focus on discerning the intricate influences of market dynamics. In this paper, we proposed a short-term prediction-based trading strategy, which can equiponderate between return and risk, considerations while accounting for investor risk preferences. This strategy employs GM(1,1) to capture nuanced features of price dynamics in short-term intervals and update the GM(1,1) model with the latest data. Subsequently, a multi-objective planning equation is formulated to optimize asset allocations by determining the optimal holding that strikes between specific returns and risk mitigation. In the end, this work conducts a case study and sensitivity analysis using five years of gold and bitcoin price data spanning from 2016 to 2021. This empirical examination serves to affirm the efficacy and resilience of the proposed trading strategy. The case study reveals that proficient short-term price forecasting serves as a potent means to proactively mitigate risk, facilitating, judicious and objective trading practices. Moreover, it underscores the strategy's tangible utility as a guide for real-world investment decisions.

Effects of HCO3- and CO2 conversion rates on carbon assimilation strategies in marine microalgae: Implication by stable carbon isotope analysis of fatty acids.

Marine microalgae are an essential component of marine plankton and critical primary producers, playing a vital role in marine ecosystems. The seawater carbonate system is a dynamic equilibrium system, and changes in any component can alter the carbonate balance. In CO2-concentrating mechanisms (CCMs), carbonic anhydrase (CA) regulates CO2 concentration by catalyzing the interconversion between CO2 and HCO3-. Therefore, limiting the activity of extracellular carbonic anhydrase (exCA) alters the rate at which carbonate equilibrium is reached and further affects the carbon assimilation process in microalgae. In this study, two different microalgae, Phaeodactylum tricornutum and Nannochloropsis oceanica, were selected to investigate the effects of changes in the carbonate system on photosynthetic carbon assimilation in microalgae by inhibiting exCA activity with acetazolamide (AZ). Inhibition of exCA activity reduces specific growth rates and photosynthetic efficiency of microalgae. The total alkalinity, HCO3- concentration, and CO2 concentration of the cultures increased with the decrease of pH, but the changes of the ribulose 1,5- bisphosphate carboxylase/oxygenase (Rubisco) activities of the two microalgae were different. In addition, the two microalgae possessed different lipid and carbohydrate synthesis strategies, but both restricted triacylglycerol (TAG) synthesis. Meanwhile, the microalgal cells had to utilize more 13CO2 when HCO3- and CO2 conversion rates were limited and restricted. This led to the continuous accumulation of 13C in fatty acids and the elevation of δ13CFAs. In conclusion, our study provides a new perspective on the role of microalgae in correlating carbonate changes with photosynthetic carbon assimilation strategies under mechanistic constraints on inorganic carbon utilization.

Surgical margins and outcomes for eyelid melanoma: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

No randomized trials exist to inform the peripheral surgical margins or depth of wide excision for eyelid melanoma. We performed a meta-analysis examining surgical margins and Breslow depth for eyelid melanomas. A systematic review was performed in August 2022 using PubMed, Cochrane, and Medline databases (1/1/1990 to 8/1/2022). Inclusion criteria included studies reporting surgical treatment of primary cutaneous melanomas of the eyelid with reported surgical margins. Ten articles were included. The studies were examined by surgical margin size (group 1: ≤ 0.5 cm; group 2 > 0.5 cm and ≤ 1.5 cm) and Breslow depth (group 1: ≤ 1 mm; group 2: > 1 mm). The odds ratio (OR) for local recurrence was 2.55 [95% CI 0.36-18.12], p = 0.18; regional metastasis was 0.70 [95% CI 0.00-23671.71], p = 0.48; and distant metastasis was 2.47 [95% CI 0.00-1687.43], p = 0.66. When examining by Breslow depth, the OR for local recurrence was 0.53 [95% CI 0.14-1.94], p = 0.34; regional metastasis was 0.14 [0.00-176.12], p = 0.54; and the OR for distant metastasis was 0.24 [95% CI 0.01-8.73], p = 0.46. There was a trend toward higher likelihood of recurrence and metastasis in the ≤ 0.5 cm group. Similarly, there is a trend toward higher likelihood of recurrence and metastasis with Breslow depth > 1 mm. A surgical margin of at least 0.5 cm and achievement of negative margins via permanent sections or MMS are likely needed to prevent adverse outcomes. En face sectioning may be a superior method of histological processing for eyelid melanoma.

Immune Response following FLASH and Conventional Radiation in Diffuse Midline Glioma.

PURPOSE: Diffuse midline glioma (DMG) is a fatal tumor traditionally treated with radiation therapy (RT) and previously characterized as having a noninflammatory tumor immune microenvironment (TIME). FLASH is a novel RT technique using ultra-high dose rate that is associated with decreased toxicity and effective tumor control. However, the effect of FLASH and conventional (CONV) RT on the DMG TIME has not yet been explored. METHODS AND MATERIALS: Here, we performed single-cell RNA sequencing (scRNA-seq) and flow cytometry on immune cells isolated from an orthotopic syngeneic murine model of brainstem DMG after the use of FLASH (90 Gy/sec) or CONV (2 Gy/min) dose-rate RT and compared to unirradiated tumor (SHAM). RESULTS: At day 4 post-RT, FLASH exerted similar effects as CONV in the predominant microglial (MG) population, including the presence of two activated subtypes. However, at day 10 post-RT, we observed a significant increase in the type 1 interferon α/ß receptor (IFNAR+) in MG in CONV and SHAM compared to FLASH. In the non-resident myeloid clusters of macrophages (MACs) and dendritic cells (DCs), we found increased type 1 interferon (IFN1) pathway enrichment for CONV compared to FLASH and SHAM by scRNA-seq. We observed this trend by flow cytometry at day 4 post-RT in IFNAR+ MACs and DCs, which equalized by day 10 post-RT. DMG control and murine survival were equivalent between RT dose rates. CONCLUSIONS: Our work is the first to map CONV and FLASH immune alterations of the DMG TIME with single-cell resolution. Although DMG tumor control and survival were similar between CONV and FLASH, we found that changes in immune compartments differed over time. Importantly, although both RT modalities increased IFN1, we found that the timing of this response was cell-type and dose-rate dependent. These temporal differences, particularly in the context of tumor control, warrant further study.

Giant Magnon-Polaron Anomalies in Spin Seebeck Effect in Double Umbrella-Structured Tb_{3}Fe_{5}O_{12} Films.

We report a giant hysteretic spin Seebeck effect (SSE) anomaly with a sign reversal at magnetic fields much stronger than the coercive field in a (001)-oriented Tb_{3}Fe_{5}O_{12} film. The high-field SSE enhancement reaches 4200% at approximately 105 K over its weak-field value and presents a nonmonotonic dependence on temperature. The unexpected high-field hysteresis of SSE is found to be associated with a magnetic transition of double-umbrella spin texture in TbIG. Nearly parallel dispersion curves of magnons and acoustic phonons around this neoteric transition are supported by theoretical calculations, leading to a high density of field-tuned magnon polarons and consequently an extraordinarily large SSE. Our study provides insight into the evolution of magnon dispersions of double-umbrella TbIG and could potentially boost the efficiency of magnon-polarons SSE devices.

Systematic characterization of the influence of petroleum spill on terpene metabolism in Suaeda salsa (L.) Pall from coastal wetland: Implication by compound-specific stable isotope.

With the increasing industrialization and urbanization, the ecological environment is suffering from severe deterioration in Liaohe coastal wetland, and petroleum spill is one of the pollution sources. Suaeda salsa (L.) Pall (S. salsa), one of the predominant plants in Liaohe coastal wetland, is facing the increasing degradation. Terpenes are a class of inherent compounds in plants, and play key role in maintain the growth of plants. However, the environmental stress on the terpene metabolism remained unclear in the plants. In the present study, the influence of petroleum spill on terpene metabolism in S. salsa was systematically investigated by analysis of concentrations, compositions and stable carbon isotope. Under the stress of petroleum spill, terpene concentrations showed the decreasing trend, indicating the inhibition effect of petroleum spill on terpene synthesis in S. salsa. The proportions of Sabinene and A-humulene showed the obviously increased with the influence of petroleum spill, implying that these congeners were more sensitive to petroleum spills. The significant changes in stable carbon isotope compositions were observed for Borneol, Dl-menthol, A-humulene and (-) -@-bisabolol, with the enrichment in heavier isotopes in residual fractions. This result indicated that the heavier 13C was preferentially fixed on terpene by S. salsa under the petroleum stress. The similar change trends along the incubation time was observed for A-humulene and (-) - trans caryophyllene, which might imply that A-humulene was one of the products of (-) - trans caryophyllene in S. salsa. Overall, the findings of present study verified the influence of petroleum spill on terpene metabolism in S. salsa, and were meaningful for protecting the plants in the petroleum-pollution wetlands.

Developing radiology diagnostic tools for pulmonary fibrosis using machine learning methods.

BACKGROUND: Accurate and prompt diagnosis of the different patterns for pulmonary fibrosis is essential for patient management. However, accurate diagnosis of the specific pattern is challenging due to overlapping radiographic characteristics. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We conducted a retrospective chart review utilizing two machine learning methods, classification and regression tree and Bayesian additive regression tree, to select the most important radiographic features for diagnosing the three most common fibrosis patterns and created an online diagnostic app for convenient implementation. RESULTS: Four hundred patients (median age of 67 with inter quartile range 58-73; 200 males) were included in the study. Peripheral distribution, homogeneity, lower lobe predominance and mosaic attenuation of fibrosis are the four most important features identified. Bayesian additive regression tree demonstrates better performance than classification and regression tree in diagnosis prediction and provides the predicted probability of each diagnosis with uncertainty intervals for each combination of features. CONCLUSION: The model and app built with Bayesian additive regression tree can be used as an effective tool in assisting radiologists in the diagnostic process of pulmonary fibrosis pattern recognition.

Pilot randomized controlled trial of restricted versus liberal crystalloid fluid management in pediatric post-operative and trauma patients.

BACKGROUND: Intravenous (IV) fluid therapy is essential in the treatment of critically ill pediatric surgery and trauma patients. Recent studies have suggested that aggressive fluids may be detrimental to patients. Prospective studies are needed to compare liberal to restricted fluid management in these patients. The primary objective of this pilot trial is to test study feasibility-recruitment and adherence to the study treatment algorithm. METHODS: We conducted a two-part pilot randomized controlled trial (RCT) comparing liberal to restricted crystalloid fluid management in 50 pediatric post-operative (1-18 years) and trauma (1-15 years) patients admitted to our pediatric intensive care unit (PICU). Patients were randomized to a high (liberal) volume or low (restricted) volume algorithm using unblinded, blocked randomization. A revised treatment algorithm was used after the 29th patient for the second part of the RCT. The goal of the trial was to determine the feasibility of conducting an RCT at a single site for recruitment and retention. We also collected data on the safety of study interventions and clinical outcomes, including pulmonary, infectious, renal, post-operative, and length of stay outcomes. RESULTS: Fifty patients were randomized to either liberal (n = 26) or restricted (n = 24) fluid management strategy. After data was obtained on 29 patients, a first study analysis was performed. The volume of fluid administered and triggers for intervention were adapted to optimize the treatment effect and clarity of outcomes. Updated and refined fluid management algorithms were created. These were used for the second part of the RCT on patients 30-50. During this second study period, 54% (21/39, 95% CI 37-70%) of patients approached were enrolled in the study. Of the patients enrolled, 71% (15/21, 95% CI 48-89%) completed the study. This met our a priori recruitment and retention criteria for success. A data safety monitoring committee concluded that no adverse events were related to study interventions. Although the study was not powered to detect differences in outcomes, after the algorithm was revised, we observed a non-significant trend towards improved pulmonary outcomes in patients on the restricted arm, including decreased need for and time on oxygen support and decreased need for mechanical ventilation. CONCLUSION: We demonstrated the feasibility and safety of conducting a single-site RCT comparing liberal to restricted crystalloid fluid management in critically ill pediatric post-operative and trauma patients. We observed trends in improved pulmonary outcomes in patients undergoing restricted fluid management. A definitive multicenter RCT comparing fluid management strategies in these patients is warranted. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04201704 . Registered 17 December 2019-retrospectively registered.

Chemotherapy and Immune Checkpoint Blockade for Gastric and Gastroesophageal Junction Adenocarcinoma.

Importance: Combining immune checkpoint blockade (ICB) with chemotherapy improves outcomes in patients with metastatic gastric and gastroesophageal junction (G/GEJ) adenocarcinoma; however, whether this combination has activity in the perioperative setting remains unknown. Objective: To evaluate the safety and preliminary activity of perioperative chemotherapy and ICB followed by maintenance ICB in resectable G/GEJ adenocarcinoma. Design, Setting, and Participants: This investigator-initiated, multicenter, open-label, single-stage, phase 2 nonrandomized controlled trial screened 49 patients and enrolled 36 patients with resectable G/GEJ adenocarcinoma from February 10, 2017, to June 17, 2021, with a median (range) follow-up of 35.2 (17.4-73.0) months. Thirty-four patients were deemed evaluable for efficacy analysis, with 28 (82.4%) undergoing curative resection. This study was performed at 4 referral institutions in the US. Interventions: Patients received 3 cycles of capecitabine, 625 mg/m2, orally twice daily for 21 days; oxaliplatin, 130 mg/m2, intravenously and pembrolizumab, 200 mg, intravenously with optional epirubicin, 50 mg/m2, every 3 weeks before and after surgery with an additional cycle of pembrolizumab before surgery. Patients received 14 additional doses of maintenance pembrolizumab. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary end point was pathologic complete response (pCR) rate. Secondary end points included overall response rate, disease-free survival (DFS), overall survival (OS), and safety. Results: A total of 34 patients (median [range] age, 65.5 [25-90] years; 23 [67.6%] male) were evaluable for efficacy. Of these patients, 28 (82.4%) underwent curative resection, 7 (20.6%; 95% CI, 10.1%-100%) achieved pCR, and 6 (17.6%) achieved a pathologic near-complete response. Of the 28 patients who underwent resection, 4 (14.3%) experienced disease recurrence. The median DFS and OS were not reached. The 2-year DFS was 67.8% (95% CI, 0.53%-0.87%) and the OS was 80.6% (95% CI, 0.68%-0.96%). Treatment-related grade 3 or higher adverse events for evaluable patients occurred in 20 patients (57.1%), and 12 (34.3%) experienced immune-related grade 3 or higher adverse events. Conclusion and Relevance: In this trial of unselected patients with resectable G/GEJ adenocarcinoma, capecitabine, oxaliplatin, and pembrolizumab resulted in a pCR rate of 20.6% and was well tolerated. This trial met its primary end point and supports the development of checkpoint inhibition in combination with perioperative chemotherapy in locally advanced G/GEJ adenocarcinoma. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02918162.

Establishing quantitative radiographic criteria for the diagnosis of pleuroparenchymal fibroelastosis.

PURPOSE: Pleuroparenchymal Fibroelastosis (PPFE) is a type of pulmonary fibrosis most commonly occurring at the apices. Patients with PPFE have an increased risk of adverse effects from lung biopsy and in the post-surgical setting. Here, we investigated simple and reproducible measurements on chest CT to evaluate their predictive value in diagnosing PPFE. METHODS: We analyzed a cohort of patients with histologically-proven PPFE and compared them to a cohort of patients diagnosed with "biapical scarring" (BAS) on chest CT. We measured plueuroparenchymal thickness using several independent parameters on chest CT. We also assessed other radiologic and clinical characteristics to identify if any were predictive of PPFF. RESULTS: Our analysis demonstrated the average greatest apical thickness with a cut off of 4.5 mm yielded a sensitivity of 94.4% and a specificity of 88.9%, and an area under the curve of 97.2%. Single greatest apical thickness with a cut off of 7.5 mm had a sensitivity of 100% and a specificity of 88.9%, with the area under the curve of 97.8%. Average greatest upper lobe thickness with a cut off of 8.0 mm had a sensitivity of 88.9% and a specificity of 100%, with an area under the curve of 98.2%. Single greatest upper lobe thickness with a cut off of 8.5 yielded both a sensitivity and specificity of 94.4% and an area under the curve of 94.3%. CONCLUSION: Measurements described above are highly sensitive and specific for the diagnosis of PPFE and warrant investigation with a larger cohort of patients.

What makes a theme park experience less enjoyable? Evidence from online customer reviews of Disneyland China.

The aim of this study was to explore the causes of tourists' lesser enjoyment of theme parks through an unsupervised machine learning approach-structural topic modelling. Specifically, the research extracted a comprehensive list of discussion topics about the travel experience of tourists through the analysis of 112,000 customer reviews released by visitors to the Shanghai Disney Resort from 16 June 2016 to 4 March 2022. Then, we used sentiment analysis to distinguish positive and negative topics and to explore the relationship between tourists who buy different ticket types and sentiments in negative topics. The results show that problems such as "parking," "service attitude," "recommendation feeling," "experience comparison," and "entrance" may be the main reasons for an unpleasant experience. In addition, we also found that when tourists travel in groups (e.g., via family tickets), customers feel unhappy because of parking and fast track problems. Moreover, when tourists travel alone or with small groups, staff service attitudes, experience comparisons, and entrance processes are the sources of greater concern. Our findings can help theme park managers to better understand the expectations of tourists and take effective measures to tackle issues causing customer dissatisfaction, and they can also contribute to theme park studies in tourism management.

Alignment of Visible-Light Optical Coherence Tomography Fibergrams with Confocal Images of the Same Mouse Retina.

In recent years, in vivo retinal imaging, which provides non-invasive, real-time, and longitudinal information about biological systems and processes, has been increasingly applied to obtain an objective assessment of neural damage in eye diseases. Ex vivo confocal imaging of the same retina is often necessary to validate the in vivo findings especially in animal research. In this study, we demonstrated a method for aligning an ex vivo confocal image of the mouse retina with its in vivo images. A new clinical-ready imaging technology called visible light optical coherence tomography fibergraphy (vis-OCTF) was applied to acquire in vivo images of the mouse retina. We then performed the confocal imaging of the same retina as the "gold standard" to validate the in vivo vis-OCTF images. This study not only enables further investigation of the molecular and cellular mechanisms but also establishes a foundation for a sensitive and objective evaluation of neural damage in vivo.

3D-Printed Cardiac Models for Fetal Counseling: A Pilot Study and Novel Approach to Improve Communication.

A fetal cardiology consultation involves using two-dimensional drawings to explain the cardiac anatomy which can result in inherent variation in how the congenital heart disease (CHD) is conveyed. In this pilot study, we incorporated three-dimensional printed (3DP) models into fetal counseling to demonstrate feasibility and evaluate the impact on parental knowledge, understanding, and anxiety. Parents with a prenatal diagnosis of a muscular ventricular septal defect (VSD) and/or coarctation of aorta were enrolled. Providers were randomized into a Model or Drawing Group and crossed after six months. Parents completed a survey after the consultation which evaluated knowledge of the CHD lesion, expectant surgical management, self-rated understanding, attitude towards the visualization tool, and anxiety. Twenty-nine patients enrolled over a 12 month period. Twelve consultations were done for coarctation of aorta, 13 for VSD, and four for coarctation with a VSD. Both Model and Drawing groups scored similarly in self-reported understanding and confidence, helpfulness of and improvement in communication with the visualization tool. The Model group had higher scores on questions related to the CHD anatomy and surgical intervention [5 [4-5] versus 4 [3.5-5]], p = 0.23 although this didn't reach statistical significance. For the majority (83%) of consultations, the cardiologist agreed that the 3D model improved communication. In this pilot study, we demonstrate the use of 3DP cardiac models during prenatal CHD counseling is feasible and produces results related to parental understanding and knowledge that are equal to and possibly better than the current standard of care.

Novel Approaches for Dynamic Visualization of Adverse Event Data in Oncology Clinical Trials: A Case Study Using Immunotherapy Trial S1400-I (SWOG).

PURPOSE: Clinical trial adverse event (AE) data are increasingly complex and high-dimensional, especially for trials evaluating novel targeted agents and immunotherapies. Standard approaches to summarize and analyze AEs remain generally tabular, failing to describe the nature of AEs. Novel dynamic and data visualization methods are needed to enable a more comprehensive assessment of the overall toxicity profile of treatments. METHODS: We developed methods for visualizing the numerous categorizations and types of AEs along with a dynamic approach to better reflect its highly dimensional nature without sacrificing the reporting of rare events. Circular plots displaying the proportion of maximal-grade AEs by system organ classes (SOCs) and butterfly plots displaying the proportion of AEs by severity for each AE term were developed to enable comparisons of AE patterns by treatment arm. These approaches were applied to a randomized phase III trial (S1400I; ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT02785952) comparing nivolumab with nivolumab plus ipilimumab in patients with stage IV squamous non-small-cell lung cancer. RESULTS: Our visualizations revealed that patients randomly assigned to nivolumab and ipilimumab had higher rates of grade 3 or higher AEs compared with nivolumab alone for several SOCs, including musculoskeletal (5.6% v 0.8%), skin (5.6% v 0.8%), vascular (5.6% v 1.6%), and cardiac (4% v 1.6%) toxicities. They also suggested a pattern of higher prevalence of moderate GI and endocrine toxicities and showed that although the rates of cardiac and neurologic toxicities were similar, the types of events were discordant. CONCLUSION: The graphical approaches we proposed enable a more comprehensive and intuitive evaluation of toxicity types by treatment groups, which is not apparent in tabular and descriptive reporting methods.

A multistate approach for the study of interventions on an intermediate time-to-event in health disparities research.

We propose a novel methodology to quantify the effect of stochastic interventions for a non-terminal intermediate time-to-event on a terminal time-to-event outcome. Investigating these effects is particularly important in health disparities research when we seek to quantify inequities in the timely delivery of treatment and its impact on patients' survival time. Current approaches fail to account for time-to-event intermediates and semi-competing risks arising in this setting. Under the potential outcome framework, we define causal contrasts relevant in health disparities research and provide identifiability conditions when stochastic interventions on an intermediate non-terminal time-to-event are of interest. Causal contrasts are estimated in continuous time within a multistate modeling framework and analytic formulae for the estimators of the causal contrasts are developed. We show via simulations that ignoring censoring in intermediate and/or terminal time-to-event processes or ignoring semi-competing risks may give misleading results. This work demonstrates that a rigorous definition of the causal effects and joint estimation of the terminal outcome and intermediate non-terminal time-to-event distributions are crucial for valid investigation of interventions and mechanisms in continuous time. We employ this novel methodology to investigate the role of delaying treatment uptake in explaining racial disparities in cancer survival in a cohort study of colon cancer patients.